Google is killing goo.gl... LOL

In my books, I used Google's URL shortener to shorten URLs. I felt that since Google was such a large company, the shortened URLs would not go the way of the Dodo. Well, fast forward a few years and the world realizes Google is in the habit of killing things 😂 -- according to the company, sometime in August 2025, Google shortened URLs will NOT work. That's more than annoying.

Here are the full URLs for the shortened URLs in the books (IDGS is Investing in Dividend Growth Stocks, DGW is Dividend Growth Whisperer). With IDGS, some of these URLs are in the kindle edition, an extended and separate edition of the book, but not in the print edition -- or they have changed between editions. In the list below, the first link or set of links is/are the shortened URL(s); the second link or set of links is/are the full URL(s).

(When you realize the extent of some of these unshortened links, you'll see why I had to shorten them. If I had used the full links, no-one in their right mind would have used them.😂)

(In the list below, the Google Finance Stock Screener is dead -- Google removed it in 2022. So, boys and girls, here we have yet another example of Google killing things. 😂)

Primary Links:

(IDGS)

Download a copy of the spreadsheet (three links but essentially the same):

http://goo.gl/qSTFJR

or

https://goo.gl/r5dMVH

or

https://goo.gl/Eo9gTj

(To download a copy of the spreadsheet use the "View the spreadsheet" link shown next and click File then Download then Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) from the menu.)

(IDGS)

View the spreadsheet  (three links but essentially the same):

http://goo.gl/etw143

or

https://goo.gl/coVfXe

or

https://goo.gl/9kWaVm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10LnPoXFsSAkhxy2cb9bFjQj0Ns_brL81SmxL3Fg0HGs/edit?gid=1521860316#gid=1521860316

or

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jqHOYw_lgsd1czo7ieYz-1_af68RluZ_hHbeTTp-CkE/edit?gid=1223213829#gid=1223213829

(IDGS) (DGW)

Finviz dividend growth screen:

https://goo.gl/qZVOUM

https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=cap_midover,fa_estltgrowth_o5,fa_payoutratio_o20,fa_roe_o20,ta_beta_u1&ft=4

Secondary Links:

(IDGS)
SEC Edgar:

(dead) http://goo.gl/1iUiL

(IDGS) (DGW)

Search SEC filings:

https://goo.gl/bKxLAo

https://www.sec.gov/search-filings

(IDGS)
Johnson & Johnson investor relations website:

(dead) https://goo.gl/zY2TK

(replacement) https://www.investor.jnj.com/overview/default.aspx

(IDGS) (DGW)

Finviz Stock Screener:

https://goo.gl/c9UnZ

https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&ft=4

(IDGS)

Google Finance Stock Screener:

(dead) https://goo.gl/30YZ2

(IDGS)

Ross Stores Chart:

http://goo.gl/wmmnjL

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ROST&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p78372737956

(DGW)

Berkshire Hathaway 1996 Chairman's Letter:

https://goo.gl/3wrC7K

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1996.html

(DGW)

Paying Back your Shareholders by McKinsey:

https://goo.gl/v8fWws

https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/paying-back-your-shareholders

(DGW)

The repurchase revolution by the Economist:

https://goo.gl/eDnvAB

https://www.economist.com/business/2014/09/12/the-repurchase-revolution

(DGW)

Zacks Stock Screener:

https://goo.gl/9gr676

https://www.zacks.com/screening/stock-screener

(DGW)

VDAIX: 

https://goo.gl/jvElCl

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vdaix

(DGW)

VIG:

https://goo.gl/nkvKB8

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vig

(DGW)

FRDPX:

(dead) https://goo.gl/XmZARQ

(equivalent) https://www.franklintempleton.com/?query=FRDPX

(DGW)

PRDGX:

(dead) https://goo.gl/FtZI7r

(equivalent) https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/dividend-growth-fund.html

(DGW)

Dividend Aristocrats:

(dead) https://goo.gl/GzujEl

(equivalent) https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/dividends-factors/sp-500-dividend-aristocrats/#overview

(DGW)

NASDAQ US Dividend Achievers Select Index:

https://goo.gl/Ka67fs

https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/Index/Overview/DVG

(DGW)

A criticism of beta:

(changed) https://goo.gl/1wZoVs

(beta in general) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_(finance)

(DGW)

McCormick investor relations website:

(dead) https://goo.gl/XdQN41

(equivalent) https://mccormickcorporation.gcs-web.com/

(DGW)

Sample Value Line report:

(dead) https://goo.gl/x2y721

(see the sample in the "How to read a Value Line research report" link next)

(DGW)

How to read a Value Line research report:

(dead) https://goo.gl/m0rR5X

(equivalent) https://investor.valueline.com/hubfs/Guides/1503516_Reading_VL_Report_WEB_2.7.17.pdf

(DGW)

Nike Selected Financial Data:

https://goo.gl/HNyVdm

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018717000090/nke-5312017x10k.htm#s9C2CAACDC86638B1B554B1AD7F18D169

(DGW)

Texas Instruments, on their capital management strategy:

(dead) https://goo.gl/hUFzgT

(alternate, updated and different) https://investor.ti.com/static-files/f59b4b01-40b1-4f6d-b910-607582883013

(DGW)

Total returns for the S&P 500: 

https://goo.gl/Y4g1aj

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESP500TR/history/?p=%5ESP500TR

(DGW)

Bull market's rise since the bottom on March 9, 2009:

https://goo.gl/kPnX7z

https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/22/investing/bull-market-longest-stocks/index.html

(DGW)

P/Es and dividend yields on major indexes, from the Wall Street Journal:

https://goo.gl/G5TwAC

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields

(DGW)

S&P 500 factsheet with P/E ratios, both trailing and projected:

(dead) https://goo.gl/bZrdnM

(general info) https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview

(DGW)

Portfolio characteristics of the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF:

https://goo.gl/L6aWT3

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vig#portfolio

Tertiary Links:

(IDGS)

Length of 2013's U.S. Federal Tax Code:

https://goo.gl/YFKQEL

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2014/04/how-long-is-the-tax-code-it-is-far-shorter-than-70000-pages.html

(IDGS)
Buffett's 1980 letter to shareholders:

https://goo.gl/nEJHGd

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1980.html

(IDGS)
LEGO facts:

(dead) https://goo.gl/mgrDcG

(IDGS)

The Legend of the Chessboard (Teaser):

https://goo.gl/DYxtbJ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byk3pA1GPgU

(DGW)

Washington Post article on the last Blockbuster in America:

https://goo.gl/49WiWg

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/07/14/why-are-you-still-here-inside-the-last-blockbuster-left-in-america/

(DGW)

Enron:

https://goo.gl/r5q1Lk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron

(DGW)

Kenneth Lay:

https://goo.gl/lOQr9P

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Lay

(DGW)

Jeffrey Skilling:

https://goo.gl/8y8YfL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling

(DGW)

Andrew Fastow:

https://goo.gl/P6JVMI

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Fastow

(DGW)

More on the interest deduction in the Tax Code:

https://goo.gl/Xegm3x

https://www.mercatus.org/students/research/policy-briefs/role-interest-deduction-corporate-tax-code

Odds of beating the market over many years -- continued

An earlier post shows just how difficult it is to beat the market over many years.

For instance, with a 45 percent chance of beating the market over one year, the probability of beating the market 9 or more years out of 12 is small -- just 36 times out of 1,000, or 3.6 percent (add the probabilities for 9, 10, 11, and 12 years in the figure below). And beating the market 11 or more years out of 12 is truly comically tiny -- just 11 times out of 10,000, or 0.11 percent.

---

You may object to my 45 percent assumption, but this is roughly the (optimistic) probability of a mutual fund beating the market in a given year. Here's some proof.

In the 1996 edition of Burton Malkiel's exceptional book, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," he states:

"Over the whole 22-year period since the first edition of this book, about two-thirds of the funds proved inferior to the market as a whole. [Thus the probability of beating the market (or equaling it) is about 33 percent. To be fair, I am not entirely sure whether this is per year. Nor am I sure of the type of return calculation.]"

However a nearby graph in his book gives plenty of detail. In the graph, Malkiel shows the probabilities of the broad market beating the typical general equity fund for each of the last 22 years. Averaging the values over the 22 years, 1973 through 1994, I get a 56.6 percent probability of the market beating the funds each year or a 43.4 percent of the typical general equity fund beating (or equaling) the market each year.

Thus, the 45 percent assumption is not silly.

---

In fact, as the markets have become more efficient, I suspect this 45 percent assumption gives fund managers ample benefit of the doubt. For instance, you will often read that only 25 percent, or so, funds beat the market in the current year.

---

I do not know the statistics for the individual investor but I suspect 45 percent is being quite generous. In fact, typical investor performances in mutual funds have badly trailed the already shoddy performance of the funds. In other words, the typical investor underperforms the typical mutual fund -- most likely because of the usual culprits, namely, greed and panic asserting themselves at precisely the wrong times.

---

Finally, one last point. Some may argue it is the total compound return that matters over many years not how many times someone beats the market. That is certainly true but just remember generating 40 percent one year, far above the market (say), usually implies weak returns the next few years. And because of how investors behave, jumping in at the tail end of the 40 percent, then holding the fund for the next few years, net, they get killed.

Ideally, what you want is consistent returns just above market with moderate risk. Do that and you make a killing.

---

So the next time someone tells you they beat the market, ask them how many times they have beaten the market over a long period. Only then will you get the honest truth -- in my opinion, 70 or 75 percent of the time over a long period is evidence of an extremely strong strategy and performance.

This isn't easy.

---


Notes:

The portfolio in "Investing in Dividend Growth Stocks" has beaten the market 11 times out of the last 12, and really 12 times out of the last 13 years, or 92 percent, a record that is matched by no more than a few, if any, (general purpose) mutual funds over this period. Available on Amazon, https://www.amazon.com/Investing-Dividend-Growth-Stocks-Realistic-ebook/dp/B01N30M6DR/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1548278535&sr=8-4&keywords=dividend+growth+stocks and https://www.amazon.com/Investing-Dividend-Growth-Stocks-Realistic/dp/0982287003/ref=sr_1_7?ie=UTF8&qid=1548278535&sr=8-7&keywords=dividend+growth+stocks

The portfolio in "Dividend Growth Whisperer," published in October, 2018, handily hammered the market in the fourth quarter of 2018. The portfolio in this book is an update to the portfolio in "Investing in Dividend Growth Stocks." It also presents a novel (and simpler) variation of the crucial concept of valuation. Available on Amazon, https://www.amazon.com/Dividend-Growth-Whisperer-Understanding-Investment-ebook/dp/B07JMMTM4R/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1548278590&sr=8-1

The latest edition of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/1324002182/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1548277918&sr=8-1&keywords=a+random+walk+down+wall+street

Starting off on a high. Dividend growth stocks from "Dividend Growth Whisperer" trounce the market in Q4, 2018.

In my new book, Dividend Growth Whisperer, published October 2018, I list 17 dividend growth stocks. While 3 months is a silly period to consider the performance of an (investment) portfolio, just to amuse myself today, I looked at how the portfolio performed during the fourth quarter of 2018.

The portfolio in the book outperformed.

While the market lost 13.55 percent during the fourth quarter -- as measured by Vanguard's S&P 500 mutual fund, VFINX -- the portfolio in my new book lost - "only" - 8.48 percent, a performance 507 basis points ahead of the market. While this degree of loss is a Pyrrhic victory, it is a decent start, considering the blind panic that infected the market at times during the fourth quarter of 2018 -- when far too many people seemed to run out of their Oreo's.

Quite interestingly, and encouragingly, 14 of the 17 stocks profiled in my new book beat the market over this period, a testament to the high quality of the stocks and the portfolio in general.

And while beating the market is not that big a deal for stodgy stocks (many utilities, for instance), these stocks are not stodgy stocks. They share characteristics that should allow them to perform better than the market over the long term -- at least, that's the theory, and that's why I picked them!

If they do what the stocks in my first book, Investing in Dividend Growth Stocks, have done they should outperform the market in bad times (falling less) and good times (rising more) -- a favorable market trait of extreme rarity. Net, over a long period, 5 to 10 years, they should handily outperform the market. At least, that's the theory....

(Even if all this does not come to pass, I believe they should do quite all right. I believe that my dividend growth stocks -- the portfolios in both books -- should beat 90 percent of all funds over a long period, except in very rare instances: rabid markets or long-term performance off a starting atrocious bear period. The portfolio in Investing in Dividend Growth Stocks has done very well, for instance. Quoting from the Amazon page:

"In 2017, the average stock in the book's portfolio returned 23.2 percent, yet again outperforming the market, which returned 21.7 percent, making it ten years out of the last eleven that the portfolio has beaten the market. [It beat the market again in 2018, so that's eleven of the last twelve years that the portfolio has beaten the market.] The portfolio very likely remains the best general purpose diversified portfolio in the market, besting the vast majority of diversified mutual funds, with the best, or among the best, 10-year records to 2017. Over the last eleven years, $1.0 million invested in the portfolio, dividends reinvested, has vaulted to $4.4 million at the end of 2017, ahead of the market by a not too insignificant $2 million -- and with much less risk, meaning as well, for instance, that you are much more likely to hold onto these stocks and actually realize these returns. Such is the benefit to long-term investors of picking these wonderful companies correctly, that is, intelligently.")

---

Many investors fail to appreciate the damage severely bad returns do to a portfolio. For instance, while the book portfolio did beat the market by 507 basis points, it actually is 641 basis points ahead of the market in terms of the returns needed to get back to par -- the book portfolio needs a return of 9.26 percent to get back to par while the market needs a return of 15.67 percent to do the same. That's a considerable victory for the good guys.

Another way to look at all this is to consider the amount of time needed to get these returns. At a market average of 9.5 percent a year, the book portfolio needs a little less than a year. The market however would need 1.60 years. So, in a sense, we are 7+ months ahead of the market -- and really considerably more, perhaps 9+ months to a year, since typically dividend growth portfolios outperform the market. Not a bad start.

You only have a finite time horizon in which to invest so time is indeed money.

--

Game on.

---

Notes:

Dividend Growth Whisperer, on Amazon, https://www.amazon.com/Dividend-Growth-Whisperer-Understanding-Investment-ebook/dp/B07JMMTM4R/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1547491648&sr=8-1

VFINX, https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/performance/vfinx

Valuing a Dividend Growth Stock with the Magic Formula (Dividend Growth Whisperer)

Enter the parameters below, then click "Calculate!" to calculate the estimated return for a dividend growth stock with those parameters.

Assumptions:

Payout Ratio (50 to 90, as a percent):

Earnings Growth Rate (3 to 14, as a percent):

Current P/E Ratio (10 to 30):

 

Notes:

• This calculation is based on the magic formula detailed in my recently published book, Dividend Growth Whisperer. The magic formula, with a couple of heuristics, provides a complete, reasonable valuation methodology to value dividend growth stocks (and really all stable stocks, as well).
• KEYBOARD INTERFACE SHORTCUTS (WINDOWS): Use the TAB, SHIFT+TAB, and ENTER keys to navigate the interface. TAB moves you forward from the first box to the second box and so on. SHIFT+TAB (that is, pressing the SHIFT key and TAB key simultaneously) moves you backward. Pressing the ENTER key while the focus is on the Calculate! button calculates the estimated return.
• Payout ratio is not the dividend payout ratio. Instead, it includes dividends, (net) share buybacks (that is, cash spent on share buybacks minus cash collected from shares issued), and any cash that the company can return to shareholders but for whatever reason does not, allowing for the company to retain some for adverse times. Obviously, this is estimated and requires a good understanding of the company's business.
• (Average) earnings growth rate is the average earnings growth rate (not the average earnings per share growth rate!) over the next 30 years, the earnings pattern similar to the pattern of earnings stipulated in the model in my book, Investing in Dividend Growth Stocks. Per the book, implicitly, therefore, I assume any stated average earnings growth rate incorporates earnings growth rates of R percent a year for 10 years, S percent a year for the next 10 years, and T percent a year for the last 10 years (of the 30), where R >= S >= T. Earnings growth after 30 years is assumed to be 3 percent a year, continuing for 170 years (!), essentially, then, until the present value of the values at those later years hits, effectively, zero.
• Earnings growth rate is roughly earnings per share growth rate minus the net share buyback rate. So if a company has an earnings per share growth rate of 8 percent a year and buys back its shares, net, at 2 percent a year, its earnings growth rate is 6 percent a year.
• Moderate growth here signifies the moderate earnings per share growth typical of dividend growth stocks as defined in my books, so 8-12 percent a year for large-caps and 8-16 percent a year for midcaps. Here, somewhat arbitrarily, the valid ranges are set from 3 percent to 16 percent.
• Current P/E ratio, ideally, reflects average earnings 6 months in the past and 6 months in the future. Roughly, it is the current price divided by the sum of eps for the last 2 quarters and the next 2 quarters.