Sunday, January 20, 2013

Bill Gross tells Abby Cohen her 2013 earnings growth rate forecast is "farcical"

The article is also revealing in the arguments made by Gross over the source of recent corporate profit growth:

"Corporate profits have come at the expense of labor. Wages as a percentage of GDP have declined to 54% from 59% in the past 10 years. That trend would have to continue for earnings to keep going up. Also, 30% to 35% of earnings growth in the past five years has come from lower interest expense. Most of you probably would agree that is coming to an end, as well. Corporations have to sell their products to somebody. They can't benefit when that somebody has depressed wages and high leverage. At some point the game begins to change. A forecast of 12%-to-13% earnings growth under such circumstances is not only extreme but almost farcical."


Source: Business Insider


Wages might be going down because corporations are moving labor costs overseas and technology is replacing many jobs.

If lower interest rates become a thing of the past, bonds will get cauterized and Bill Gross's bond funds will be clobbered. He states later that money have not "yet" vacated his funds.

Corporations are also selling their products overseas and wages there, at least in the developing world, are improving.


All that said, 12-13% growth does seem pollyannish.

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