Guesses

The difficulty of short-term forecasting arises because history has this uneasy habit of not always repeating in the way that it once did. What may have been correctly ignored before suddenly becomes relevant today; what was relevant in the past suddenly becomes of questionable value today.

Quite hopelessly, no one can reliably predict anything in the short term. Even if someone gets it right once, the market often proves them wrong later. Most investors guess.

And history has often proved those guesses wrong.